Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 144,963
2 Rhode Island 143,740
3 South Dakota 140,569
4 Utah 127,823
5 Tennessee 124,793
6 Arizona 121,882
7 Iowa 118,111
8 Wisconsin 116,186
9 Nebraska 115,718
10 South Carolina 115,601
11 Oklahoma 114,957
12 New Jersey 114,813
13 Arkansas 114,012
14 Delaware 112,325
15 Indiana 111,831
16 Alabama 111,738
17 Illinois 109,833
18 Kansas 109,021
19 Idaho 108,457
20 New York 108,356
21 Mississippi 107,313
22 Florida 107,124
23 Minnesota 107,093
24 Nevada 106,351
25 Wyoming 105,803
26 Montana 105,689
27 Georgia 104,019
28 Kentucky 103,752
29 Massachusetts 102,855
30 Texas 102,510
31 Louisiana 102,372
32 Missouri 101,385
33 Michigan 99,714
34 Connecticut 97,738
35 New Mexico 97,419
36 North Carolina 96,264
37 California 96,257
38 Colorado 96,250
39 Alaska 95,868
40 Pennsylvania 94,778
41 Ohio 94,722
42 West Virginia 91,032
43 Virginia 79,410
44 Maryland 76,342
45 New Hampshire 72,914
46 District of Columbia 69,683
47 Washington 58,671
48 Puerto Rico 54,181
49 Maine 51,035
50 Oregon 48,640
51 Vermont 38,992
52 Hawaii 25,262

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Colorado 78
2 Utah 74
3 Wyoming 69
4 Missouri 65
5 Arizona 60
6 Washington 57
7 Arkansas 50
8 Nevada 47
9 Indiana 43
10 Idaho 42
11 Oklahoma 41
12 Hawaii 40
13 Louisiana 39
14 Oregon 39
15 West Virginia 38
16 Alabama 37
17 North Carolina 37
18 New Mexico 36
19 Kentucky 32
20 Alaska 30
21 Mississippi 29
22 Delaware 28
23 Maine 28
24 Montana 28
25 Michigan 27
26 Kansas 25
27 New Jersey 25
28 South Carolina 25
29 Georgia 24
30 Minnesota 24
31 Texas 24
32 North Dakota 23
33 Ohio 23
34 Iowa 21
35 Pennsylvania 21
36 New York 20
37 California 19
38 New Hampshire 18
39 Rhode Island 18
40 Illinois 17
41 Puerto Rico 17
42 Maryland 12
43 Virginia 11
44 Wisconsin 11
45 Connecticut 10
46 Massachusetts 10
47 District of Columbia 9
48 Nebraska 9
49 Vermont 5
50 South Dakota 4
51 Tennessee 4
52 Florida 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,964
2 New York 2,723
3 Massachusetts 2,603
4 Rhode Island 2,569
5 Mississippi 2,470
6 Arizona 2,441
7 Connecticut 2,317
8 Alabama 2,299
9 Louisiana 2,291
10 South Dakota 2,290
11 Pennsylvania 2,151
12 Michigan 2,080
13 New Mexico 2,052
14 Indiana 2,041
15 North Dakota 2,035
16 Illinois 2,011
17 Arkansas 1,942
18 Iowa 1,934
19 Georgia 1,928
20 South Carolina 1,901
21 Oklahoma 1,851
22 Nevada 1,826
23 Tennessee 1,815
24 Texas 1,797
25 Kansas 1,770
26 Florida 1,735
27 Delaware 1,724
28 Ohio 1,718
29 Kentucky 1,613
30 District of Columbia 1,612
31 Maryland 1,602
32 California 1,598
33 Missouri 1,597
34 West Virginia 1,591
35 Montana 1,537
36 Wisconsin 1,376
37 Minnesota 1,349
38 Virginia 1,325
39 Nebraska 1,301
40 North Carolina 1,269
41 Wyoming 1,252
42 Colorado 1,186
43 Idaho 1,185
44 New Hampshire 1,002
45 Puerto Rico 792
46 Washington 764
47 Utah 724
48 Oregon 654
49 Maine 628
50 Alaska 486
51 Vermont 410
52 Hawaii 355

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Kansas 2
2 Michigan 2
3 Arizona 1
4 Indiana 1
5 Kentucky 1
6 Minnesota 1
7 Virginia 1
8 Alabama 0
9 Alaska 0
10 Arkansas 0
11 California 0
12 Colorado 0
13 Connecticut 0
14 Delaware 0
15 District of Columbia 0
16 Florida 0
17 Georgia 0
18 Hawaii 0
19 Idaho 0
20 Illinois 0
21 Iowa 0
22 Louisiana 0
23 Maine 0
24 Maryland 0
25 Massachusetts 0
26 Mississippi 0
27 Missouri 0
28 Montana 0
29 Nebraska 0
30 Nevada 0
31 New Hampshire 0
32 New Jersey 0
33 New Mexico 0
34 New York 0
35 North Carolina 0
36 North Dakota 0
37 Ohio 0
38 Oklahoma 0
39 Oregon 0
40 Pennsylvania 0
41 Puerto Rico 0
42 Rhode Island 0
43 South Carolina 0
44 South Dakota 0
45 Tennessee 0
46 Texas 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 West Virginia 0
50 Wisconsin 0
51 Wyoming 0
52 Washington -1

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 404,328 1 99
Crowley Colorado 364,626 2 99
Bent Colorado 277,031 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,849 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 247,236 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 143,338 194 93
Richland South Carolina 113,922 998 68
York South Carolina 113,749 1004 68
Orange California 85,885 2269 27
Pierce Washington 62,218 2830 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Hancock Georgia 8,159 3 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,607 1855 40
York South Carolina 1,392 2110 32
Richland South Carolina 1,383 2122 32
Davidson Tennessee 1,383 2123 32
Pierce Washington 695 2807 10

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons